A combination of new vehicle technologies and behavioural changes could reduce New Zealand’s transport emissions by up to 90% of 2015 levels by 2050.
So says a report presenting four future visions for New Zealand which show that vehicle technology – such as switching to electric vehicles, biofuels and hydrogen fuel cells – will likely play the most significant role in decarbonising transport.
But the Thinkstep Australasia report also suggests changes in the way we think about mobility will help to drive down carbon emissions further, while also reducing congestion, promoting healthier lifestyles and increasing fuel supply security.
“There are two complementary courses of action; technology (switching from petrol and diesel vehicles to electric vehicles, biofuels and/or hydrogen fuel cells) and behavioural change (ridesharing and public transport),” the report summary says, noting both paths can be pursued together to increase the rate and scale of change.
The report says technological change will be the biggest win, but will take time to roll out.
“Much of the transition to low-carbon transport can be met through vehicle technology alone. Over
the next 30 years, New Zealand will undergo significant technological changes across the vehicle fleet through the introduction of battery electric vehicles, drop-in (second generation) biofuels, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
“Electric vehicles (EVs) offer the greatest potential for emissions reductions in the New Zealand context, particularly if we can move our electricity grid close to 100% renewable over the next few decades.
“Biofuels and/or renewable hydrogen are also likely to play an important part in the transport energy mix, particularly for heavy and commercial vehicles where range, refuelling times and cost may be the deciding factors.
“For ships and planes, drop-in biofuels seem to be one of the few technologies currently capable of offering equivalent performance to fossil fuels.”
The report says operational greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could be reduced by 56% to 95% if New Zealand had the ability to replace its entire vehicle fleet and fuel mix overnight.
It notes that transport is, on average, the leading contributor to Kiwis’ carbon footprint.
“While New Zealand’s electricity mix is about 80% renewable, the country’s total energy mix is only
40% renewable primarily due to the use of fossil fuels for transport.”
Transport contributed 19% of all GHGs emitted in New Zealand in 2015.
“However, when accounting for the emissions embodied in exports (dairy, meat, etc) and imports (cars, trucks, clothes, etc), transport jumps to more than 40%, making it the single most important area where New Zealanders can reduce the national carbon footprint through purchasing decisions.”
Behavioural change will be most effective if it happens now, the report says, mainly because that primarily reduces demand for passenger cars and these cars are already beginning to transition towards electric.
Ride-sharing has the potential to contribute to the greatest overall improvement in carbon footprint
from behaviour change, followed by increased public transport uptake.
Achieving large improvements comes with trade-offs – electricity generation would need to nearly double, or 5% of all agricultural land would need to be converted to biofuel production, the report adds.
“The role of government and business, as we see it, is to make these low-carbon choices easy and
convenient. Encouraging uptake of ride-sharing through widespread use of carpool lanes and other
incentives offers the potential for a quick win, alongside creating a pricing model for electric vehicles
that makes them attractive to New Zealand consumers.
“Investment in biofuels and renewable hydrogen, together with continued investment in renewable electricity generation, seem like logical next steps beyond this.”